Tropical Storm Cempaka 31W continues to increase in intensity and is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Reponsibility ("PAR") tomorrow as a Typhoon. Tropical Storm Cempaka 31W will quickly change direction soon after entering the PAR, first turning North and then Northeast to pass South of Japan.
The above image is reproduced from Joint Typhoon Warning Center
There are currently no storms forecast for development in the area of the Northwest Pacific. There is one storm - Tropical Storm Cempaka 31W - currently around 400NM North-northwest of Guam, and tracking West-Northwest towards Taiwan, that is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Reponsibility ("PAR") tomorrow as a typhoon. Tropical Storm Cempaka 31W is forecast to turn North then Northeast before reaching Taiwan and is not forecast to cross land. Click this link to monitor storm formations and tracks at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Looking at the 14-day forecast we can see no new storms approaching the Philippine islands.
The traditional seasonal development of High Pressure systems over northern China appears to be more significant now. We are expecting further evidence of the traditional NE Monsoon (locally: Amihan) over the Philippines. The NE Monsoon traditionally brings drier air to the Philippine archipelago starting in October and through to April / early May each year.
It could be observed that the unusually strong El Niño this year has in fact helped the Philippines avoid the usual number of tropical storms and typhoons that would ordinarily have passed over land here. Notwithstanding, the country (especially in the South) has nevertheless received unusual volumes of SW Monsoon rainfall as a result that has caused, sometimes dramatic, floods and flood-related damage to infrastructure. Conversely, Taiwan, Southeast China and Japan have been the recipients of unusually severe weather systems as a result. This is just another example of how the future may look if the World continues to fail to curb the burning of fossil fuels and continues cutting trees to be replaced by plantations, argircultural development and (worse) construction projects.
Otherwise the Philippines is now mostly under the influence of the "Amihan" / Northeast Monsoon (Winter Monsoon) so winds are frequently less strong although occasional local thunderstorms are likely.
If you are sailing in the Philippines or planning to arrive here soon then we encourage you to stay current on the weather advisories. We suggest that you bookmark this page.
To view High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Philippines you can review the PAGASA website and see if there is any local weather that may affect your planned adventures.
For the current broader view of how forecast tropical weather in general may affect the Philippines we have included a graphic image from windy.com - if you click on the image you can see the forecast wind predictions for the coming seven days, and more . . .
click here to study How To Prepare for a Typhoon